On Monday, the Washington Post
reported on the results of a Quinnipiac poll showing changes to public
opinion following the testimony of Dr. Christine Blasey Ford and Supreme
Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh last Thursday. While the headline of the
article was that the “big gulf on Kavanaugh is partisan,” what the results of the poll actually show is the big change was explicitly non-partisan.
Of those who changed their positions following the hearing, none were
more affected than independent voters—and they believed Ford.
The last nationwide Quinnipiac showed Kavanaugh with a 45–39 support among independents. That has now flipped to a 49–39 opposition. That number closely mirrors the 46–38 result among independents who say they believed Dr. Ford compared to those who believed Kavanaugh.
Angry white men always believe that angry white man is a good look. Trump was ecstatic with Kavanaugh’s performance, and certainly Lindsey Graham and Orrin Hatch were eager to get in on the sweet taste of righteous privilege. But though the polling following the hearing shows a distinct break between the reaction of men and women, here’s what Kavanaugh actually gained from his stint as America’s Most Outraged: Zero. Nothing. Nada. The change in opinion among men following the hearing was exactly zero, with just as many running away from Kavanaugh as being snagged by his non-judicial comportment, his strictly partisan rhetoric, and his sneering response to questions.
Meanwhile, the numbers among women were anything but a net zero. Opposition among Democratic women was 64 percent in advance of the hearing and 84 percent following: a net 16 point shift. That change is less than the shift among independent women who, following the testimony, moved against Kavanaugh by a massive 25 point shift.
What’s clear is that the hearings last Thursday reached everyone, not just those who normally follow politics closely. For many people who previously didn’t pay much attention to the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, the testimony of Ford and the nominee was their first chance to get a glimpse at the man who would be a justice.
That’s reflected in the overall sharp drop in those who had no opinion from 17 percent in September, to 9 percent now.
What’s clear from the poll results is that the people most likely to change is those who previously did not hold a strong position. And those people did not like what they saw from Brett Kavanaugh.
There is a note of danger for Democrats in the poll results. While 68 percent of Americans, and 71 percent of independents, supported reopening the FBI background check, 54 percent of independents also felt that Democrats had been unfair in their treatment of Kavanaugh. That reflects a hint that the Republican effort to push the idea that Democrats purposely delayed the release of information and used it to “smear” Kavanaugh is breaking through … but not very strongly.
Democrats should keep pressing back against that story—and know that, no matter how happy it may have made Donald Trump—Kavanaugh’s angry, partisan tirade did not go over well with the Americans who were watching. And everyone was watching.
The last nationwide Quinnipiac showed Kavanaugh with a 45–39 support among independents. That has now flipped to a 49–39 opposition. That number closely mirrors the 46–38 result among independents who say they believed Dr. Ford compared to those who believed Kavanaugh.
Angry white men always believe that angry white man is a good look. Trump was ecstatic with Kavanaugh’s performance, and certainly Lindsey Graham and Orrin Hatch were eager to get in on the sweet taste of righteous privilege. But though the polling following the hearing shows a distinct break between the reaction of men and women, here’s what Kavanaugh actually gained from his stint as America’s Most Outraged: Zero. Nothing. Nada. The change in opinion among men following the hearing was exactly zero, with just as many running away from Kavanaugh as being snagged by his non-judicial comportment, his strictly partisan rhetoric, and his sneering response to questions.
Meanwhile, the numbers among women were anything but a net zero. Opposition among Democratic women was 64 percent in advance of the hearing and 84 percent following: a net 16 point shift. That change is less than the shift among independent women who, following the testimony, moved against Kavanaugh by a massive 25 point shift.
What’s clear is that the hearings last Thursday reached everyone, not just those who normally follow politics closely. For many people who previously didn’t pay much attention to the confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh, the testimony of Ford and the nominee was their first chance to get a glimpse at the man who would be a justice.
That’s reflected in the overall sharp drop in those who had no opinion from 17 percent in September, to 9 percent now.
What’s clear from the poll results is that the people most likely to change is those who previously did not hold a strong position. And those people did not like what they saw from Brett Kavanaugh.
There is a note of danger for Democrats in the poll results. While 68 percent of Americans, and 71 percent of independents, supported reopening the FBI background check, 54 percent of independents also felt that Democrats had been unfair in their treatment of Kavanaugh. That reflects a hint that the Republican effort to push the idea that Democrats purposely delayed the release of information and used it to “smear” Kavanaugh is breaking through … but not very strongly.
Democrats should keep pressing back against that story—and know that, no matter how happy it may have made Donald Trump—Kavanaugh’s angry, partisan tirade did not go over well with the Americans who were watching. And everyone was watching.
No comments:
Post a Comment