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Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Accept That Everything You Understand About the World Will Fundamentally Change



I’ve spent a great deal of time trying to develop a way to understand exactly what is happening.  At times I’m remarkably calm about things; at other times, I think we’re in the opening scene of a post-apocalyptic movie where the world is falling apart and society is desperately trying to maintain order and stability but to no avail.

Yesterday morning I finally hit the nail on the head and realized the following (which is from my Facebook feed):


Screenshot_2020-03-29HaleStewart1.png
I got the idea from a governor Cuomo press conference (God bless that man, BTW).  He noted that we will get through this but that it will forever be with us — we’ll look back in 10 years and say, “I was doing “X” during the pandemic.”

This statement implies that this is a world-defining event much like WWII or (I hate to say it) the Great Depression.  It’s something that will change, well, everything.

Here are some of the things that are going to fundamentally change.
  • A big return of Keynesian economics.  Almost overnight, Republicans ditched their austerity mantra and quickly voted for a $2 trillion stimulus.  There was no talk of “we need to balance the budget;” instead there was talk about keeping people whole.
  •  
  • A return to government expertise.  Watching Dr. Fauci and other experts during this crisis has been very comforting because they tell the truth (which stands in stark contrast to Trump).  Polls show that the public trusts them.  Once this is over, expect the public to become a lot more comfortable with expertise.
  •  
  • A rise of teleworking: Modern technology allows people to work remotely.  I’ve observed there’s a clear generational divide regarding this idea: old people dislike it, younger people are all over it.  Once this is over, expect this idea to become part of the modern workforce.
  •  
  • A huge rise in automation.  One of the big problems with manufacturing in the current crisis is that large groups of people have to be in close proximity, which prevents social distancing.  Expect factories to adopt automation at a faster pace to ramp-up production as this thing comes to an end.  And this will lead to …
  •  
  • A future discussion and eventual adoption of Universal Basic Income: I’m behind in understanding the specifics of this concept, but I understand the basic idea, which is pure Keynesian in concept.  Expect this to become a commonly expressed idea.
  •  
  • A complete rethinking of the US health care system.  Watching this disaster unfold one thing has become very clear: the healthcare system has to change in a big way.  I have no idea what it will look like.  But it’s going to change.
This is what I see.  Please add your comments below as to the changes you think are coming because I certainly don’t have a monopoly on observations.

Rim Country Gazette Blog Editor's observation
This nation will never take toilet paper for granted again.

Monday, March 30, 2020

NRA fights California for right to spread COVID-19


National Rifle Association members attend the 146th NRA Annual Meetings & Exhibits on April 29, 2017 in Atlanta,
National Rifle Association members attend the 146th NRA Annual Meetings & Exhibits on April 29, 2017 in Atlanta.
Just in case you need a little certainty in life, you can usually count on the National Rifle Association (NRA) to tirelessly advocate for dollars over human lives. This time, the organization is bypassing the tragic loss of lives resulting from the coronavirus pandemic in an attempt to readjust the nation’s focus to the firearm industry. Yes, that means a lawsuit, as The Sacramento Bee reported.

The NRA, and several other supporters, filed a lawsuit Friday against California Gov. Gavin Newsom and other California officials for failing to declare gun stores essential businesses in the state's stay-at-home order temporarily closing businesses without the essential designation.

"By the order of the Sheriff of Los Angeles County, gun and ammunition stores are not considered essential businesses and must close to the general public..." Los Angeles County Sheriff Alex Villanueva said in a statement Thursday. He’s obviously listed in the NRA’s lawsuit, too, for enforcing the business closures. 

"There are hundreds of businesses which, through no fault of their own, do not fall under the governor's definition of critical infrastructure," Villanueva said last week, according to CNN. "As a result, I have instructed my deputies to enforce closures of businesses which have disregarded the governor's order." Still, Jason Ouimet, executive director of the NRA’s Institute for Legislative Action, whined that municipalities are targeting "lawful gun stores for closure" and "weaponizing their politics to disarm you and your loved ones." He told The Sacramento Bee “these shameless partisans are recklessly promoting a gun-control agenda that suffocates your self-defense rights when you need them most.” California really doesn’t have time for this.

Newsom said during a press conference last week that an estimated 56 percent of the about 40 million California residents are expected to contract the virus and 20 percent could be hospitalized as a result of the virus. California is already reporting more than 5,000 coronavirus cases and 121 deaths, the Los Angeles Times reported Sunday.

In addition to that spiraling infection rate, many immigrants in the state of more than two million undocumented immigrants fear what going to the doctor may mean for their status in the country, a CalMatters reporter pointed out. To that concern, Newsom didn’t have much of a definitive answer but said the state believes in universal healthcare and pluralism. "We believe in prevention," the governor added. "We believe in reducing costs and advancing the health of all the residents in the state of California."

NRA attorneys, however, stated in the lawsuit: “The circumstances posed by the (COVID-19) outbreak are noteworthy, but do not excuse unlawful government infringements upon freedom. In fact, the importance of maintaining the ongoing activities of essential businesses for the safety, health, and welfare of Californians makes (the plaintiffs’) point: the need for enhanced safety during uncertain times is precisely when (the plaintiffs) and their members must be able to exercise their fundamental rights to keep and bear arm." 

Brady, a gun violence prevention group told CNN the NRA’s lawsuit is off-base. "In this time when we all need to sacrifice to flatten the curve and stop this pandemic, it is disturbing that the NRA won't budge from its overriding purpose -- to increase gun industry profits at any cost," Brady President Kris Brown told the network.

"There is no constitutional right to spread coronavirus while shopping, for guns or anything else.”

Sunday, March 29, 2020

Coronavirus Worst Intelligence Failure in US History

'If somebody does not consistently parrot the president's proclamations with adequate intensity, they are fired, or it is leaked that their firing could be imminent at any time.' (photo: Yuri Gripas/EPA)
'If somebody does not consistently parrot the president's proclamations with adequate intensity, they are fired, or it is leaked that their firing could be imminent at any time.' (photo: Yuri Gripas/EPA)


By Micah Zenko, Guardian UK

29 March 20
The Trump administration’s unprecedented indifference, even willful neglect, forced a catastrophic strategic surprise onto the American people
ast September, I met the vice-president for risk for a Fortune 100 company in Washington DC. I asked the executive – who previously had a long career as an intelligence analyst – the question you would ask any risk officer: “What are you most worried about?” Without pausing, this person replied, “A highly contagious virus that begins somewhere in China and spreads rapidly.” This vice-president, whose company has offices throughout east Asia, explained the preventive mitigating steps the company had subsequently adopted to counter this potential threat.

Since the novel coronavirus has swept the world, I have often thought about this person’s prescient risk calculus. Most leaders lack the discipline to do routine risk-based horizon scanning, and fewer still develop the requisite contingency plans. Even rarer is the leader who has the foresight to correctly identify the top threat far enough in advance to develop and implement those plans.

Suffice it to say, the Trump administration has cumulatively failed, both in taking seriously the specific, repeated intelligence community warnings about a coronavirus outbreak and in vigorously pursuing the nationwide response initiatives commensurate with the predicted threat. The federal government alone has the resources and authorities to lead the relevant public and private stakeholders to confront the foreseeable harms posed by the virus. Unfortunately, Trump officials made a series of judgments (minimizing the hazards of Covid-19) and decisions (refusing to act with the urgency required) that have needlessly made Americans far less safe.

In short, the Trump administration forced a catastrophic strategic surprise onto the American people. But unlike past strategic surprises – Pearl Harbor, the Iranian revolution of 1979, or especially 9/11 – the current one was brought about by unprecedented indifference, even willful negligence. Whereas, for example, the 9/11 Commission Report assigned blame for the al-Qaida attacks on the administrations of presidents Ronald Reagan through George W Bush, the unfolding coronavirus crisis is overwhelmingly the sole responsibility of the current White House. 

Chapter 8 of the 9/11 Commission Report was titled, The System Was Blinking Red. The quote came from the former CIA director George Tenet, who was characterizing the summer of 2001, when the intelligence community’s multiple reporting streams indicated an imminent aviation terrorist attack inside the United States. Despite the warnings and frenzied efforts of some counter-terrorism officials, the 9/11 Commission determined “We see little evidence that the progress of the plot was disturbed by any government action … Time ran out.”

Last week, the Washington Post reported on the steady drumbeat of coronavirus warnings that the intelligence community presented to the White House in January and February. These alerts made little impact upon senior administration officials, who were undoubtedly influenced by President Donald Trump’s constant derision of the virus, which he began on 22 January: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be just fine.”

By now, there are three painfully obvious observations about Trump’s leadership style that explain the worsening coronavirus pandemic that Americans now face. First, there is the fact that once he believes absolutely anything – no matter how poorly thought-out, ill-informed or inaccurate – he remains completely anchored to that initial impression or judgment. Leaders are unusually hubristic and overconfident; for many, the fact that they have risen to elevated levels of power is evidence of their inherent wisdom. But truly wise leaders authentically solicit feedback and criticism, are actively open thinkers, and are capable of changing their minds. By all accounts, Trump lacks these enabling competencies.

Second, Trump’s judgments are highly transmissible, infecting the thinking and behavior of nearly every official or adviser who comes in contact with the initial carrier. Unsurprisingly, the president surrounds himself with people who look, think and act like he does. Yet, his inaccurate or disreputable comments also have the remarkable ability to become recycled by formerly honorable military, intelligence and business leaders. And if somebody does not consistently parrot the president’s proclamations with adequate intensity, they are fired, or it is leaked that their firing could be imminent at any time – most notably the recent report of the president’s impatience with the indispensable Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

And, third, the poor judgments soon contaminate all the policymaking arms of the federal government with almost no resistance or even reasonable questioning. Usually, federal agencies are led by those officials whom the White House believes are best able to implement policy. These officials have usually enjoyed some degree of autonomy; not under Trump. Even historically non-partisan national security or intelligence leadership positions have been filled by people who are ideologically aligned with the White House, rather than endowed with the experience or expertise needed to push back or account for the concerns raised by career non-political employees.

Thus, an initial incorrect assumption or statement by Trump cascades into day-to-day policy implementation.

The same Post report featured the following stunning passage from an anonymous US official: “Donald Trump may not have been expecting this, but a lot of other people in the government were – they just couldn’t get him to do anything about it. The system was blinking red.” That latter passage is an obvious reference to that aforementioned central finding of the 9/11 Commission Report.

Given that Trump concluded early on that the coronavirus simply could not present a threat to the United States, perhaps there is nothing that the intelligence community, medical experts employing epidemiological models, or public health officials could have told the White House that would have made any difference. 

Former national security adviser Henry Kissinger is reputed to have said after an intelligence community warning went unrecognized, “You warned me, but you didn’t convince me.” Yet, a presidential brain trust wholly closed off to contrarian, though accurate, viewpoints is incapable of being convinced.

The White House detachment and nonchalance during the early stages of the coronavirus outbreak will be among the most costly decisions of any modern presidency. These officials were presented with a clear progression of warnings and crucial decision points far enough in advance that the country could have been far better prepared. But the way that they squandered the gifts of foresight and time should never be forgotten, nor should the reason they were squandered: Trump was initially wrong, so his inner circle promoted that wrongness rhetorically and with inadequate policies for far too long, and even today. Americans will now pay the price for decades.

Saturday, March 28, 2020

Trump puts coronavirus crisis on hold to call Sean Hannity and complain about the real victim—Trump

LAS VEGAS, NV - SEPTEMBER 20:  Fox News Channel and radio talk show host Sean Hannity (L) interviews U.S. President Donald Trump before a campaign rally at the Las Vegas Convention Center on September 20, 2018 in Las Vegas, Nevada. Trump is in town to support the re-election campaign for U.S. Sen. Dean Heller (R-NV) as well as Nevada Attorney General and Republican gubernatorial candidate Adam Laxalt and candidate for Nevada's 3rd House District Danny Tarkanian and 4th House District Cresent Hardy.  (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Donald Trump is the captain of the Titanic. Except he’s still arguing that this is the greatest voyage ever, complaining that people want too many lifeboats, and telling everyone to get back to that fantastic dinner. So … strike up the band and take a seat. More are available all the time.

On Thursday evening, Trump called in for a chat with Fox News’ Sean Hannity, and in that conversation he demonstrated that just because the nation is in the midst of a catastrophic epidemic where normal life has been destroyed, millions have already lost their job, and thousands are going to die—it can always be worse.

Because there was absolutely nothing in the conversation with Hannity that demonstrated that Trump had the slightest sense of what was really happening in the world around him, or that he was going to lift a finger to help.

It’s never a good sign when Trump begins a conversation with his best pal/propagandist by informing the world that he told the chairman of the Chinese Communist Party to chill for a couple of hours while he got out his on-air whining.

But that’s exactly how Trump’s conversation began, with Trump telling Hannity that he put a scheduled call to President Xi Jinping on hold.

"Because of you, I made it at 10:30," Trump said, explaining how he had put off the call. "That just shows you the power ... that just shows when you have the number one rated show in television.” Because there is never anything in the world that Trump thinks about more than television ratings. Really. Even now. The purpose of that call with Xi was supposed to be discussing the pandemic, how China brought the virus under control, and whether they might be able to provide material assistance now that the United States has taken over the #1 spot as the world’s most-infected nation. All of that went on hold.

Trump then went straight to his major theme of the evening—complaining about people wanting him to display leadership. Which is exactly what Trump did for the next hour. Rather than expressing his concerns about the coronavirus epidemic, rather than offering his support to those suffering, or condolences for those already mourning, Trump used his appearance to complain that people, governors in this case, were asking for things. In particular, Trump was upset that governors wanted personal protective equipment for healthcare workers, and ventilators for patients. Trump seemed to treat these requests like they were not only coming direct from his own pocket, but as if the governors were trying to trick him by … requesting lifesaving equipment as citizens died around them.

“I have a feeling that a lot of numbers that are being sent in some areas are just bigger than they need to be,” said Trump. Even as the numbers in New York shot up again, with over 100 deaths in a day, three-hour waits for an ambulance, and every available space filled with suffering, Trump dismissed the idea that the whole state of New York might need large numbers of ventilators.

“I don't believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators,” said Trump. “You go into major hospitals sometimes, and they’ll have two ventilators. And now all of a sudden they’re saying, ‘Can we order 30,000 ventilators?’” Many hospitals have a ventilator system for every ICU room. There are 214 hospitals in New York State.

Even 40,000 would be less than 200 each at a time when those hospitals are being swarmed by thousands of patients.

But Trump has a “feeling” about it, which is of course much more important than numbers or facts or dead people. In fact, Trump returned to this point and decided he had been too generous in his earlier assessment. “You go to hospitals who have don’t even have one in a hospital,” said Trump, “and all of a sudden everybody is asking for vast numbers.” Greedy bastards. Wanting all that … lifesaving equipment. 

But even then Trump wasn’t done complaining about the request. “When you talk about ventilators,” said Trump, “it is a highly intricate piece of equipment. It’s heavily computerized, and good ones are very, very expensive. And they say … Gov. Cuomo and others ... they say we want 30,000 of them. 30,000. Think of this.”

Yes, think of it. A new medical ventilator costs around $15,000. If Trump gave everyone what they wanted, it could cost $450 million. It’s not like it’s a real national emergency, when Donald Trump took funding from veteran’s housing, schools, and even hospitals to channel billions into his wall. 

What Trump took from unallocated Department of Defense funds just when he declared a national emergency in 2018 would be enough to buy over 1.2 million ventilators … but then no one elected Trump to save lives. And he’s not.

But Trump wasn’t satisfied in just complaining about governors wanting things. Not when he could also complain about governors. Trump took multiple shots at Washington governor Jay Inslee, who was the first governor in the nation to face a coronavirus hot spot. Despite earning widespread praise for his handling of the situation, including from Mike Pence, Trump described Inslee as “a snake.”

But at least he remembered Inslee’s name. Trump’s other major target was also a Democratic governor in a state hit hard by COVID-19. “We’ve had a big problem with the young ... a woman governor … you, you know who I’m talking about. From Michigan,” Trump said to Hannity. “We don’t like complaints,” said Trump, apparently invoking a royal pronoun.

That’s Michigan Gov. Gretcher Whitmer. And her complaint is that Trump is hoarding materials while letting her people die. It’s a pretty valid complaint.

Friday, March 27, 2020

The Economy v. Our Lives? It's a False Choice - and a Deeply Stupid One

'What economism misses includes complexity, historical contingency, and the profound, uncountable power of human emotion.' (photo: Angela Weiss/Getty)
'What economism misses includes complexity, historical contingency, and the profound, uncountable power of human emotion.' (photo: Angela Weiss/Getty)

By Siva Vaidhyanathan, Guardian UK

Calls to reopen America have disturbing intellectual roots. And the millions of deaths that could ensue would fuel a depression beyond our imagination

ncient Hebrew texts are peppered with references to and prohibitions against pre-Judaic practices associated with Moloch, a Canaanite god to whom children were sacrificed for the greater good.

Now, millennia later, there are prominent voices among us who propose sacrificing the old and weak among us at the altar of another false god – the global economy.

Suddenly, the ghosts of Thomas Malthus and Jeremy Bentham have become priests for the 21st-century Moloch, and have haunted American public conversation about coronavirus.

Republican officials, conservative economists, unqualified pundits, and even the 73-year-old president of the United States have suggested that the short-term economic pain we have just begun inflicting on ourselves to slow the spread of coronavirus might cost too much, just to save the lives of a few million of our most vulnerable neighbors.

The University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan, who served on President Trump’s council of economic advisers, told the New York Times that shutting down economic activity to slow the virus would be more damaging than doing nothing at all. He prefers some sort of weighing of the costs and benefits of saving lives.

“It’s a little bit like, when you discover sex can be dangerous, you don’t come out and say: there should be no more sex,” Mulligan said. “You should give people guidance on how to have sex less dangerously.”

And on Tuesday Trump announced that he wanted all US business back to normal levels of function by Easter, 12 April. “This cure is worse than the problem,” Trump said.

This is beyond immoral. It’s profoundly stupid. But this mode of thought is all too common among those who can’t see beyond their economic textbooks or their stock portfolios. And it has troubling intellectual roots.

In the late 18th century, Malthus warned that the poor would breed at a rate that would outpace the resources necessary to sustain a growing population, resulting in famine and misery. His predictions failed but were still deployed for decades to limit public amelioration of poverty.

In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, Bentham promoted the idea that public moral decisions should be made to foster the greatest good for the greatest number, forging the calculus that has pushed policymakers and economists to invoke simplified “cost-benefit analyses” to decide if a measure is worthy of consideration.

Overall, this approach is a stark example of a troubling ideology that grips too many of those with power and influence in the world. Economism is a belief system that leads people to believe that everything can be simplified to models and curves, and that it’s possible to count and maximize utility in every circumstance.

What economism misses includes complexity, historical contingency and the profound, uncountable power of human emotion.

To set up a false choice between driving the economy into the ground while saving millions of lives or reviving the economy while sacrificing millions of lives ignores a core fact: the global economic depression unleashed by the deaths of millions in the United States, millions in Europe, millions in Asia, millions in India, millions in Mexico and millions in Brazil would be beyond our experience or imagination.

No one would trade with anyone for years. Trade would grind to a halt because of mourning, fear of infection, society-wide trauma and social unrest. Let’s note that despite the late and insufficient responses by North American and European leaders, those leading Mexico and Brazil have yet to take the threat seriously at all. They keep denying the gravity of our situation. 

India only this week took measures that it should have taken in January prohibiting most people from leaving home and grounding flights for a month. But millions of Indians have no door to close, no place to store food, and no way to distance themselves from those infected. Corpses will soon pile up, waiting for cremation or burial, reinfecting communities weakened by this disease. No one is ready for the social, spiritual and economic devastation that is sure to come by June.

Anywhere in the world, positing this problem as a tradeoff between the economic interests of the young and the lifespan of the old is a terrible error. As the US Centers for Disease Control explains, those vulnerable to serious or fatal cases of the infection include not just the elderly, but anyone who is obese, diabetic, has high blood pressure, is HIV-positive, has undergone cancer treatment, suffers from asthma or smokes. Those factors are more common among poorer Americans as well as older Americans. And poor Americans occupy all age ranges.

Soon enough, as hospitals around the world overflow with coronavirus patients, exhausting doctors, nurses, orderlies, custodians, medical supplies, ventilators and hospital cash accounts, doctors will have to make moral choices about who lives or dies. We should not supersede their judgment based on a false choice.

Economic depression will come, regardless of how many we let die. The question is how long and devastating it will be.

So this is not a matter of young v old, or even rich v poor (although that would be more accurate and a more classic story of political conflict in America). Even those with none of the most dangerous conditions, who are as young as 12, could succumb to this powerful virus. It’s all of us v all of us. Or, if we choose, all of us for all of us.

Thursday, March 26, 2020

The President Is Crazy

Al Franken. (photo: MPR)
Al Franken. (photo: MPR)
By Al Franken, Al Franken's Blog
 
he president is crazy*. We see that every day. But he is the president. He won the election – technically. So, we just have to live with it – having a president who is clinically insane*.

There is a diagnosis – narcissistic personality disorder*. It’s a real thing. And he has it. “I alone can fix it,” he told us at the Republican National Convention.

Nothing he has said or done since would lead you to any other conclusion. He is a sociopath*, our president.

It was never okay. Having a nutcase* in the White House. But somehow he had survived three-plus years without facing a huge crisis – if you don’t count his impeachment as a huge crisis, which it sort of wasn’t. It didn’t really matter that he started his presidency by crazily insisting that his inaugural crowd was bigger than Obama’s. (What do suppose that was about?)

Not even one American would die because less than 24 hours into his presidency Americans were introduced to something called “alternative facts.” So, as constantly weird and offensive as it has been for Americans to have a bonkers* president, he skated through. Until Covid-19.

The president’s mental illness* allows him to be both intellectual sloth and supremely confident jerk, ever convinced that he (and he alone) can do everyone else’s job better than they. Generals, climate scientists, public health experts. And he’s always right. Because he’s a psychopath*. And this Donald Trump brand of psychopath* is never wrong. Even when being wrong will cause the additional deaths of perhaps hundreds of thousands of Americans.

Let’s start with his very first public assessment of the most-deadly worldwide pandemic in a century. Asked at Davos by a CNBC reporter, “Are there worries about a pandemic at this point?”

Jan. 22 – “No. Not at all. And we have it totally under control.”
Jan. 24 – “It will all work out well.”
Jan. 30 – “We have it very well under control. We have very little problem in this country at the moment – five. And those people are all recuperating successfully.”
Feb. 10 – “Looks like by April, you know, in theory, when it gets a little warmer, it miraculously goes away.”
Feb. 19 – “I think the numbers are getting progressively better as we go.”
Feb. 20 – “…within a couple of days, is going to be down to close to zero.”
Feb. 22 – “We have it very much under control in this country.”
Feb. 25 – “…the Democrats are politicizing the coronavirus… They tried the impeachment hoax … and this is their new hoax.” (to Sean Hannity)
Feb. 26 – “We’re going down, not up.”
Feb. 27 – “It’s going to disappear. One day like a miracle – it will disappear.”
Feb. 29 – “Everything is really under control.” (The vaccine will be available) “very rapidly.”
March 2 – “It’s very mild.”
March 4 – “…we’re talking about very small numbers in the United States.”
March 6 – (visiting the CDC) “I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, ‘How do you know so much about this?’ Maybe I have a natural ability.’ Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president.” Maybe.
March 6: (same availability) “Anybody who wants a test can get a test. That’s the bottom line.”
March 7: “I’m not concerned at all. No, we’ve done a great job with it.”
March 10 – “It will go away. Just stay calm. It will go away.”
March 16 – (asked to rate his own performance) “I’d rate it a ten.”
March 17 – “I felt it was a pandemic long before it was called a pandemic.”

One striking aspect of Trump’s mental illness* is that he expends no energy trying to disguise it. Most successful sociopaths* put a lot of effort into hiding their illness. Not Donald Trump. It’s all right there for all of us to see, all the time.

Some very smart people have suggested that the coronavirus briefings should come from the CDC or the Department of Health and Human services – with public health experts, doctors, and other public officials giving scientifically accurate information to the press and the American people. Well, that just shows you how stupid very smart people can be.

Trump has to do the briefings. Because he won’t be able to hold a rally for months.

He’s an egomaniac*. A charlatan who needs an audience to get his juices going.

And so, we have this spectacle now – three, four, five times a week. What will Trump do today? Take credit for some positive development? Of course. Blow up at a “nasty” reporter? Good chance. Give out a piece of dangerously irresponsible information? You bet.

What will Dr. Tony Fauci do when this idiot* suggests that it would be a beautiful thing for Americans to pack the pews on Easter Sunday? Oh, he just did that? Even though that would be just cuckoo*?

But what will Dr. Fauci do the next time? Or the next? Flinch? Roll his eyes? Tactfully correct the president? I beg you, Mr. President. Keep Dr. Fauci! Yes, it’s just a matter of time before you put him in an untenable position and his measured, diplomatic response will set you off because you are a lunatic*. And you will want to fire him because you will be in an uncontrollable rage. That’s going to happen, because it always happens, and because you are completely unhinged*.

But please, sir, don’t. Not because he is an indispensable asset during this once-in-a-century worldwide pandemic. No. Keep Tony Fauci because he will guarantee you an enormous audience. Millions more will flock to their screens for the drama. It’s Salieri versus Mozart. The bitter, twisted hack against the true genius dedicated to his God-given gift. And remember which one died early and was dumped into a pauper’s grave!

It would be fun to watch, if it weren’t so sad.

Don’t go to church, everyone. Stay home, everyone.
_____
*I am not a psychiatrist. Nor have I personally examined the President.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

Cuba's Coronavirus Response Is Putting Other Countries to Shame

Cuban doctors prepare to leave for Italy to provide medical aid. (photo: Twitter)
Cuban doctors prepare to leave for Italy to provide medical aid. (photo: Twitter)

By Ben Burgis, Jacobin
24 March 20
Cuba is caricatured by the Right as a totalitarian hellhole. But its response to the coronavirus pandemic — from sending doctors to other countries to pioneering anti-viral treatments to converting factories into mask-making machines — is putting other countries, even rich countries, to shame.
ast week, the MS Braemar, a transatlantic cruise ship carrying 682 passengers from the United Kingdom, found itself momentarily stranded. Five of the cruise’s passengers had tested positive for the coronavirus. Several dozen more passengers and crew members were in isolation after exhibiting flu-like symptoms.

The ship had been rebuffed from several ports of entry throughout the Caribbean.

According to sources in the British government who spoke to CNN, the UK then reached out to both the United States and Cuba “to find a suitable port for the Braemar.”

Which country took them in? If you’ve paid attention to the Trump administration’s xenophobic rhetoric about “the Chinese virus” and its obsession with keeping foreign nationals out of the country, and you know anything about Cuba’s tradition of sending doctors to help with humanitarian crises all around the world, you should be able to guess the answer.

The Braemar docked in the Cuban port of Mariel last Wednesday. Passengers who were healthy enough to travel to their home countries were transported to the airport in Havana. Those who were too sick to fly were offered treatment at Cuban hospitals — even though there had only been ten confirmed cases in the whole country, and allowing patients from the cruise ship to stay threatened to increase the number.

Cuba Mobilizes Against the Virus

Despite being a poor country that often experiences shortages — a product of both the economy’s structural flaws and the effects of sixty years of economic embargo by its largest natural trading partner — Cuba was better positioned than most to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.

The country combines a completely socialized medical system that guarantees health care to all with impressive biotech innovations. A Cuban antiviral drug (Interferon Alfa-2B) has been used to combat the coronavirus both inside the country and in China. Cuba also boasts 8.2 doctors per capita — well over three times the rate in the United States (2.6) or South Korea (2.4), almost five times as many as China (1.8), and nearly twice as many as Italy (4.1).

On top of its impressive medical system, Cuba has a far better track record of protecting its citizens from emergencies than other poor nations — and even some rich ones. Their “comprehensive, all-hands-on-deck” hurricane-preparedness system, for example, is a marvel, and the numbers speak for themselves. In 2016, Hurricane Matthew killed dozens of Americans and hundreds of Haitians. Not a single Cuban died. Fleeing residents were even able to bring their household pets with them — veterinarians were stationed at the evacuation centers.

The coronavirus will be a harder challenge than a hurricane, but Cuba has been applying the same “all-hands-on-deck” spirit to prepare. Tourism has been shut down (a particularly painful sacrifice, given the industry’s importance to Cuba’s beleaguered economy). And the nationalized health care industry has not only made sure that thousands of civilian hospitals are at the ready for coronavirus patients, but that several military hospitals are open for civilian use as well.

Masks: A Tale of Two Countries

In the United States, the surgeon general and other authorities tried to conserve face masks for medical professionals by telling the public that the masks “wouldn’t help.” The problem, as Dr Zeynep Tufekci argued in a recent New York Times op-ed, is that the idea that doctors and nurses needed the masks undermined the claim that they would be ineffective. Authorities correctly pointed out that masks would be useless (or even do more harm than good) if not used correctly, but as Tufekci notes, this messaging never really made sense. Why not launch an aggressive educational campaign to promote the dos and don’ts of proper mask usage rather than telling people they’d never be able to figure it out?

Many people also wash their hands wrong, but we don’t respond to that by telling them not to bother. Instead, we provide instructions; we post signs in bathrooms; we help people sing songs that time their hand-washing. Telling people they can’t possibly figure out how to wear a mask properly isn’t a winning message. Besides, when you tell people that something works only if done right, they think they will be the person who does it right, even if everyone else doesn’t.

The predictable result of all of this is that, after weeks of “don’t buy masks, they won’t work for you” messaging, so many have been purchased that you can’t find a mask for sale anywhere in the United States outside of a few on Amazon for absurdly gouged prices.

In Cuba, on the other hand, nationalized factories that normally churn out school uniforms and other non-medical items have been repurposed to dramatically increase the supply of masks.

Cuban Doctors Abroad

The same humanitarian and internationalist spirit that led Cuba to allow the Braemar to dock has also led the tiny country to send doctors to assist Haiti after that nation’s devastating 2010 earthquake, fight Ebola in West Africa in 2014, and, most recently, help Italy’s overwhelmed health system amid the coronavirus pandemic. (Cuba offered to send similar assistance to the United States after Hurricane Katrina ravaged the Gulf Coast, but was predictably rebuffed by the Bush administration.)

Even outside of temporary emergencies, Cuba has long dispatched doctors to work in poor countries with shortages of medical care. In Brazil, Cuban doctors were warmly welcomed for years by the ruling Workers’ Party. That began to change with the ascendance of far-right demagogue Jair Bolsonaro. When he assumed office, Bolsonaro expelled most of the Cuban doctors from the country, insisting that they were in Brazil not to heal the sick but “to create guerrilla cells and indoctrinate people.”

As recently as two weeks ago, Bolsonaro was calling the idea that the coronavirus posed a serious threat to public health  a “fantasy.” Now that reality has set in, he’s begging the Cuban doctors to come back.

Embracing Complexity About Cuba

Last month, Bernie Sanders was red-baited and slandered by both Republicans and establishment Democrats for acknowledging the real accomplishments of the Cuban Revolution. It didn’t seem to matter to these critics that Sanders started and ended his comments by calling the Cuban government “authoritarian” and condemning it for keeping political prisoners. Instead, they seemed to judge his comments by what I called the “Narnia Standard.” Rather than frankly discussing both the positive and negative aspects of Cuban society, the island state is treated as if it lacks any redeeming features — like Narnia before Aslan, where it was “always winter and never Christmas.”

Democratic socialists value free speech, press freedom, multiparty elections, and workplace democracy. We can and should criticize Cuba’s model of social organization for its deficits. But Cuba’s admirably humane and solidaristic approach to the coronavirus should humble those who insist on talking about the island nation as if it were some unending nightmare.