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Wednesday, August 28, 2019

Trump's approvals aren't just sinking nationally—they're plunging in every key battleground

WASHINGTON, DC - AUGUST 22: U.S. President Donald Trump walks away after presenting the Medal of Freedom to retired Boston Celtic Bob Cousy in the Oval Office at the White House on August 22, 2019 in Washington, DC. Mr. Cousy is credited helping the Boston Celtics win six National championships. (Photo by Mark Wilson/Getty Images)
Donald Trump's national job disapproval rating has been nudging upward for roughly the last month, but only by a hair, from 52.4% on July 20 to 54% today (Aug. 27) in FiveThirtyEight's aggregate. But that narrow national window obscures a much larger and more important trend in key battleground states since the beginning of Trump's tenure. Indeed, Trump’s net approval rating has plunged in states such as Wisconsin (-14), Michigan (-11), and Pennsylvania (-8)—all of which Trump won in 2016.

Here's the comparison from Axios (using Morning Consult data) with the orange/left column denoting July 2019 and the purple/right column reflecting January 2017.
Graph showing Trump
In addition to plummeting in the Rust Belt states that handed him the Electoral College, Trump has taken dramatic hits in other key battlegrounds such as Arizona, where his net negative is now -7, a whopping 26-point drop overall, or Florida, where his net negative is -1, representing a 23-point downgrade from early 2017.

Yowzer. Or how about a red-leaning farm state such as Iowa, where he's at -11, a 20-point plunge? Just guessing that GOP Sens. Martha McSally of Arizona and Joni Ernst of Iowa aren't digging those data points.

Heck of a job, Trump.

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