The results of
the Iowa caucuses won’t be known until late this evening, but we already
know the big winner: Senator Bernie Sanders.
The 24/7
chattering classes focus on whether Sanders’ young and new voters will
turn out, whether his voters’ enthusiasm can match Clinton’s
organization, whether the blizzard will hit before or after the
caucuses. But Iowa isn’t about who wins the most delegates; it is about
who gains momentum and legitimacy. Whether he wins or loses in the final
caucus count, Sanders is already assured of coming out of Iowa with
momentum and legitimacy. The “fringe” candidate is for real. The
prohibitive favorite has been pushed to the wall.
When Sanders
first announced, he was universally dismissed as irrelevant, an unknown
self-described “democratic socialist” who would strain to live up to the
results of the boutique campaigns of Al Sharpton or a Dennis Kucinich.
Hillary Clinton had all of the money, unprecedented establishment
support, the best operatives, and wisely was building an unprecedented
ground operation in Iowa. She led Sanders in a February 2015 NBC poll
of Iowa voters by 68 percent to 7 percent (Biden has 12 percent).
Sanders, at best, would provide a frisky trial-run pony, giving Clinton
practice in debates, helping the campaign exercise its muscle, without
forcing it to raise much of a sweat or spend much of its lucre.
That was then.
Since then, Sanders has surged dramatically, running neck and neck in
Iowa and capturing the lead in New Hampshire. He’s set new records in
small donations, proving that a populist candidate can be financially
competitive in a national presidential race without support of the
Democratic Party’s deep pockets, largely located in Wall Street,
Silicone Valley or Hollywood. His bold populist agenda – break up the
big banks, Medicare for all, $15 minimum wage, free public college and
more – has proven its appeal, with Clinton forced to move his way.
Sanders, the 73-year-old grandfather, has electrified young voters. The press has focused on polling
that shows Sanders with wide leads among the young and new voters,
while Clinton’s strength is among older and experienced caucus-goers.
The Sanders campaign faces immense turnout challenges as a result, but
he’s demonstrated that millennials – the largest and most diverse
segment of the population – are looking beyond the offerings of socially
liberal, corporate Democrats for a bolder and more populist politics.
Sanders also
appeals, not surprisingly, to the party’s liberals, professionals,
technical workers and activists. But Clinton is also very popular among
liberals and professionals. The Jacobin’s Matt Karp offers
an additional insight into the Sanders coalition: “A good deal of
evidence suggests that Sanders has assembled a rather different kind of
voter coalition than any primary challenger of the past generation —
that he is the rare ‘progressive’ candidate who can actually win over
white working-class voters.”
Karp points to a
September Quinnipiac poll that showed Sanders with a 19-point lead
among voters making less than $30,000 while Clinton led by 14 points
among voters making more than $100,000. A more recent Quinnipiac polls
shows that trend sharpening. More extensive polling in New Hampshire
shows Sanders faring better among voters making less than $50,000, while
Clinton does best among voters making at least six figures.
If these trends
hold up, they will be a stark contrast to the support garnered by
earlier “insurgent” candidacies of Barack Obama or Bill Bradley or
Howard Dean. Their appeal was largely among affluent, young
professionals. Clinton’s comeback in New Hampshire in 2008 was fueled by
the support among working people, particularly women. Obama cleaned up
in voters making six figures or more.
And this
suggests that Sanders’ appeal comes from his integrity – his
independence of big money and willingness to take it on and call it out –
and his platform. It suggests hat at least in Iowa and New Hampshire,
working class voters are tuning in on what he has to say.
The last
insurgent to put forth an agenda as bold as Sanders was the Rev. Jesse
Jackson in 1984 and particularly in 1988. (Disclosure: I worked with
Jackson on that campaign.) Jackson also championed universal health
care, a living wage, empowering workers, challenged NAFTA, called for
dramatic increases in public investment, and for curbing our
interventionist foreign policies. Jackson’s insurgency mobilized people
of color, but gained increasing traction among working people,
particularly union members.
To date, the
Sanders campaign has gained little traction among African-American and
Latino voters, the former providing the core of Clinton’s
much-celebrated “firewall” in South Carolina. These are the very voters
that fueled the Jackson insurgency.
As an
African-American civil rights hero, Jackson had name recognition,
allies, organizers and ministers in support of his effort. Sanders is
virtually unknown, despite a proud history with the early civil rights
movement. Virtually all of the gatekeepers are with Clinton, who has, of
course, universal name recognition.
Sanders will
clearly come out of Iowa and New Hampshire with momentum. He’ll have the
resources to be competitive. He’ll have to introduce himself and his
ideas, with little time to do so. But his platform will appeal if it
gets heard. As Black Lives Matter and the Dreamers have shown,
throughout the black and Latino communities, young organizers are
impatient with their leaders, angry at conditions, and ready to force
change. Generally, blacks and Latinos tend to vote cautiously, better
the “devil we know.” But these are not cautious times. The
African-American and Latino middle classes were devastated in the Great
Recession, and have had the hardest time recovering from it. From
Ferguson to Flint, the afflictions imposed on these communities are
getting exposed. As Sanders introduces himself, he may generate a
surprisingly receptive response.
Those, of
course, are mere musings. But what Sanders has already won is very real.
He’s put forth a bold, populist agenda. He’s challenged the grip of big
money on our politics. And he’s shown that his message can electrify
the young and attract working people.
In this, Sanders
has already begun to shake the establishment, evidenced by increasingly
vitriolic attacks on him and his ideas. Sanders is putting the powers
that be on notice. This rigged system doesn’t work for the vast majority
of Americans.
And the complacent politics of the establishment center
offer no way out. The elites of both parties better figure out how to
cut Americans a better deal – or Americans will demand a new dealer.
So whatever the
caucus results, congratulations, Senator Sanders. You come out of Iowa
with momentum. Your campaign is challenging the limits of our political
debate. You are, without doubt, Monday night’s big winner.
Sam Guarnaccia ·
With THIS 'winner'......there are NO losers.
Antonio Bernal ·
THIS
IS HOW REVOLUTIONS WORK; First, the background must be analyzed and
established, then 2.- New Ideas emerge, 3.- There is a definite shift to
revolutionary activity, as opposed to reformism, 4.- The terror is
brought in by thugs fighting change, met with revolutionary violence
from the other side, 5.- The oligarchy, frightened, does everything it
can to usher in a COUNTERREVOLUTION, then 6.- the revolutionary forces
slip their boundries of discipline and engage in ultra- left, anarchist
acts. The revolutionary forces rein them in, establishsing the
revolution institutionally--a new stage in human development, a
synthesis combining the old and the new, in a fulfillment of the
promise.
WE ARE SOMEWHERE AROUND NUMBER 3. Expect violence in 2016-2220.
WE ARE SOMEWHERE AROUND NUMBER 3. Expect violence in 2016-2220.
Darlene Costner ·
I
attended one of Bernie's rallys and if the people who have seen him
come out to vote, he will win by a landslide. The enthusiasm is real
and inspiring.
Albert Elsen ·
Just keep the momentum going, and we'll see where this can take us! Well done Bernster!
If
we don't pay for our politician's political campaigns then how can we
expect them to represent us? Democracy depends on the participation of
we the people. Everyone understands this. Only Sanders walks the walk.
He cannot do it without us. Now is the time for all good people to come
to the aid of Bernie Sanders and what his campaign represents, a promise
to move back in the direction of democracy. I'm sorry, but Hilary
Clinton represents the Democratic Committee business as usual. Not good
enough.
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