GEORGE TEMPLETON
COMMENTARY
By George Templeton
Rim Country Gazette Columnist
Torn between two lovers
The 1976 song goes, “Torn between Two Lovers, feeling like a fool, loving both of you is breaking all the rules.”
You
must decide. Can you know so little that you miss the most important
thing? Can too many facts get in the way of making decisions? Can
facts ever explain the personal world of love, jealousy, hate, greed,
envy, pride, and altruism? We try to grasp subjective introspection
with the objective, but they mix like oil in water. We have “gut feel”
and the “inner light”. Are we directed by the “holy spirit”? We can be
thankful that God didn’t hire lawyers to help him write the Ten
Commandments! Believe it or not, we all come to Jesus like a little
child. The world is full of opinionated know-nothings.
Deciding on Immigration
It
was 1889 Ellis Island, where 5000 immigrants per day came to America.
They did not know if they could stay. They had to be vetted and checked
for health before being allowed to continue on. You can imagine Fred
and Joe, the immigration inquisitors and Steinmetz.
The
23 year old Steinmetz pleaded, I want to become an American, but he
could not reach the counter top or even be seen because he was a dwarf,
only four feet tall. Fred says to Joe, “Where is he? How’s this guy
going to tote that barge and lift that bale?”
“What is your profession? How will you support yourself in America?”
Steinmetz
replied, “I don’t have a profession. I was a student studying
imaginary numbers.” Joe thought to himself. “It’s going to take real
numbers to help this guy.”
“How
about your health?” Steinmetz had a humped back, a crooked gait, and
hip dysplasia. His head, hands, and feet were too big for the rest of
his body.
Joe
said to Fred: “Not another one. Why do those countries keep sending
us their worst? Let’s ask him why he wants to come to America.”
“Your
honor, I was going to be arrested in Germany because I was a notorious
socialist and a political enemy of the establishment. Please don’t send
me back.”
A trouble maker! Doesn’t he know that socialism can never work in the United States?
The
inquisitors were not doing Trump’s “extreme vetting”. They must have
seen the plaque at the base of the Statue of Liberty, “Give me … the
wretched refuse of your teeming shore …” Immediate perception would have
never admitted Steinmetz, but morality tore against that.
Steinmetz
electrified America. He simplified math, replacing the partial
differential equations used in the days before wireless, with the
algebra of complex variables and imaginary numbers. It separated energy
by making it perpendicular to losses. He applied that to everything. Reality spoke more clearly and that benefited all of humanity as Steinmetz knew it would.
Choosing Democracy
Imagine
that society is like an amplifier. “Happening now” inputs to it.
Without time for contemplation, we make inferences about rapid fire
gossip, outputting our feelings about it. Some of this comes back and
combines with the input enhancing it and making it more extreme.
Because we believe that something is true, we see it as going beyond
ourselves.
In
engineering language, we say that stability depends on the feedback
loop’s amplification and timing. We want information fed back to the
input to subtract from it. Skepticism acts to correct distortion and
improve accuracy. Lacking it, society oscillates, outputting without
input.
Perhaps
our society is more like a differentiator. Change commands our
attention. Sensational novelty contributes to an unstable lack of
focus. Our eyes dart from side to side, expecting to find a threat,
instead of keeping a focus on the ball. Our minds have the goal of
protecting our beliefs. We encounter the world more through faith than
by rationality and logic.
The
parapsychologists at the Institute of Noetic Sciences realize that our
minds go beyond ourselves. Some have claimed that we can have
experiences outside our brain. Science has failed to confirm mind over
matter, yet the fact that we share language reveals that we are more
than ourselves.
Democracy
relies on the ability of citizens to deliberate thoroughly and reach
consensus. The founding fathers knew this. They knew that minds could
not be separated from their environment. That is why they divided
government.
Without Free-Will
The
criminal explained, “The devil made me do it”. The judge thought, “I
can’t be blamed for giving you the death penalty”. Could it be that
“more freedom” is a subjective perception instead of an objective
reality?
The
universe is like a clock and we are part of it, yet in the cafeteria we
pick an entrée. It could be that our choice is coerced, not
determined.
To
be free, don’t we need alternative choices? Suppose we have decided to
murder, but we have been hypnotized so that if we change our mind we
kill anyway. We freely decide to murder, so the hypnotic spell is never
actuated. We acted freely, but had no choice.
Suppose
you wish you had wanted to travel more, see and experience the world,
but did not. It is your choice. Self-introspection is a strong
indicator of free will. But drug addicts desire to want to kick their
habit and they cannot.
The
faithful view predestination both in history and salvation, the latter
morphing into God’s grace and pride in knowledge about not being in
God’s book preordaining eternal damnation. Morality needs deliberation,
but God’s foreknowledge clashes with our free will and even his. God
is aware of his beliefs, sees the future, and already knows how he is
going to choose. He commands the future.
The
philosopher G. W. F. Hegel saw God as the beginning and end of history,
creating truth. His viewpoint went on to influence Karl Marx who spun
history in terms of the materialism that infects American life. As we
grow older, we realize that we cannot escape our past. It has
determined who we are and in some mysterious way who we will be.
Quantum
physics suggests we take every possible path even though only one is
observed. Probability and random events replace causality. Einstein’s
universe ultimately contradicted his understanding that there was no
absolute fixed point, no ether, to measure things against. But there
was space-time. If you sliced through it, holding any two of the four
dimensions constant, you would see a surface, an X-Y plot. The past,
present, and future are always equally present.
The Millionaire
The1950’s
TV show concerned a fabulously wealthy man whose hobbies included
confidentially giving away a million dollars to an unsuspecting
recipient whom he had never met. He devised a simple game that he knew
would not be boring. He did this because he was fascinated with human
nature. In real life, we often need to make choices between poorly
defined alternatives. Our minds have to reach beyond the given data.
The
game works like this: The millionaire gives you two boxes labeled A
and B. You are allowed to choose between taking only box B or both
boxes A and B. Box A is transparent and contains a visible $1,000. Box
B is closed. Its contents have already been set by the millionaire.
If the millionaire has predicted that you will take both boxes A and B,
then box B contains nothing. If the millionaire has predicted that you
will take only box B, then it contains $1,000,000. How do you choose?
Hum!
You say, “I can calculate the optimum selection”. It requires that the
choices are equally likely and that the millionaire’s choice does not
influence yours. Would math replace your intuition? The game contains a
blind spot! Uncertainty cannot be avoided. What will you do then?
You
could create a table. It should have three columns: predicted
choice, actual choice, and payout. The table will have four rows.
There are two ways to make the prediction and two ways to make the
actual choice for a total of four rows.
If
the millionaire is like God, who never makes an error, there are only
two possibilities. If the predicted choice and actual choice are both
boxes, than the payout is $1000. If the predicted choice and actual
choice are box B, then the payout is $1,000,000. Either way you win
something. You could pick to maximize your winnings and that would be
box B.
But
suppose God commanded you to pick both boxes. Your pick of B gets you
nothing. But God knows how you will choose because he sees the future.
The past becomes connected with your future choice. However you
choose, God has certainly predicted it, so why not choose box B and win
big?
Note
that this situation does not require God. It only needs a very good
predictor. Suppose your prophet is right only half the time. Now there
are four possibilities. In the limit, you could know that your prophet
always gets it wrong.
But the millionaire isn’t God. He is just a guy like Donald Trump with
a lot of money. You can take his word but you can’t trust his
judgment. Your choice does not alter how the money was already
distributed. It is not a poker game. You can’t see the millionaire and
don’t know him. His reason for choosing you to play is unknown. Is
there any fact of human nature that could tip the scales in your favor?
There
is a situation where the predicted choice does not match the actual
choice. Donald may have predicted that you will take both boxes, but
you take only box B and the payout is zero dollars. He may have
predicted that you will take box B but you take both boxes and now the
payout is $1,001,000.
You
could pick the strategy that is always better, regardless of Donald’s
guess. At the time of your choosing, box B is either empty or contains
$1,000,000, but box A is known to contain $1,000. You win $1,000 or
$1,001,000 if you pick both boxes.
With
inflation, we have to increase all the dollar amounts by at least ten
times to retain the “feel” of the game. Suppose there was even more
money in box A, say $100,000. Would you change your decision? How does
the amount of money in box B change things?
Outside of the Box
Some
people will never be pleased without winning the maximum prize. Others
are easily satisfied. Some justify their choice by arguing that they
cannot be wrong about their own private mental state. It is their
decision to make.
No comments:
Post a Comment