PUBLISHED TO
Remember all the way back to Friday morning when Donald Trump
strolled out to bask in the warm glow of an unexpected drop in the May
unemployment rate?
According to the jobs report issued on Friday morning, unemployment across the nation fell from 14.7% in April, to 13.3% in May. That makes unemployment merely a third higher than it was at the peak of the Great Recession. Trump was so excited by this outcome that he declared he wanted to buy “one of those trailers, what are they called?” and drive around the country with Melania. It was “the greatest comeback in American history.” In fact, it was so good that “George is looking down right now and saying: 'This is a great thing that's happening for our country.' This is a great day for him." Yes, Trump really said that.
So … funny thing. The actual jobs report appeared later in the day and it did say that the unemployment rate was 13.3%. But it also said that the BLS and the Census Bureau were investigating a “misclassification error” around workers sidelined by the coronavirus pandemic. The truth is that the actual unemployment rate was around 16.3%.
The problem was that the the surveys used for the jobs reports polled employers about jobs and put a large number of people into the category of being absent from work for “other reasons.” In this case, the reason was that companies had shut down or cut back because of the pandemic and related impacts. However, that category of “other reasons” is normally used for workers who are essentially taking some uncategorized form of leave. It’s used for people who are on jury duty or taking personal time off to deal with a family crisis. These people are still counted as being employed.
But in this case, that same category was used for people who had genuinely been let go due to the downturn caused by the COVID-19 crisis.
According to the jobs report issued on Friday morning, unemployment across the nation fell from 14.7% in April, to 13.3% in May. That makes unemployment merely a third higher than it was at the peak of the Great Recession. Trump was so excited by this outcome that he declared he wanted to buy “one of those trailers, what are they called?” and drive around the country with Melania. It was “the greatest comeback in American history.” In fact, it was so good that “George is looking down right now and saying: 'This is a great thing that's happening for our country.' This is a great day for him." Yes, Trump really said that.
So … funny thing. The actual jobs report appeared later in the day and it did say that the unemployment rate was 13.3%. But it also said that the BLS and the Census Bureau were investigating a “misclassification error” around workers sidelined by the coronavirus pandemic. The truth is that the actual unemployment rate was around 16.3%.
The problem was that the the surveys used for the jobs reports polled employers about jobs and put a large number of people into the category of being absent from work for “other reasons.” In this case, the reason was that companies had shut down or cut back because of the pandemic and related impacts. However, that category of “other reasons” is normally used for workers who are essentially taking some uncategorized form of leave. It’s used for people who are on jury duty or taking personal time off to deal with a family crisis. These people are still counted as being employed.
But in this case, that same category was used for people who had genuinely been let go due to the downturn caused by the COVID-19 crisis.
“If the workers who were recorded as employed but absent from work due to "other reasons" (over and above the number absent for other reasons in a typical May) had been classified as unemployed on temporary layoff, the overall unemployment rate would have been about 3 percentage points higher than reported.”
Had the unemployment rate actually declined to 13.3%, it still would
have been a horrible number that was indicative of an economy struggling
to cope with the sudden impact of the pandemic and a the bungled
federal response. But that rate was illusory. The actual rate of 16.3%
shows that the economy is still in serious trouble, and that the “rocket
ship” of recovery Trump bragged about on Friday was science fiction
… minus the science.
None of this means that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is intentionally mangling the numbers to please Trump. It simply means that this is an extraordinary situation in which the conventional categorizations of what it means to be employed or unemployed are being strained. It also means that Trump definitely should not have been in a hurry to rush out and deliver an 82 minute incredibly discursive discourse. But it doesn’t mean he can’t have an RV. He definitely should climb into an RV … and just keep driving.
Oh, and he should just keep George Floyd’s name out of his mouth.
None of this means that the Bureau of Labor Statistics is intentionally mangling the numbers to please Trump. It simply means that this is an extraordinary situation in which the conventional categorizations of what it means to be employed or unemployed are being strained. It also means that Trump definitely should not have been in a hurry to rush out and deliver an 82 minute incredibly discursive discourse. But it doesn’t mean he can’t have an RV. He definitely should climb into an RV … and just keep driving.
Oh, and he should just keep George Floyd’s name out of his mouth.
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