'If somebody does not consistently parrot the president's proclamations with adequate intensity, they are fired, or it is leaked that their firing could be imminent at any time.' (photo: Yuri Gripas/EPA)
29 March 20
The Trump administration’s unprecedented indifference, even willful neglect, forced a catastrophic strategic surprise onto the American people
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September, I met the vice-president for risk for a Fortune 100 company
in Washington DC. I asked the executive – who previously had a long
career as an intelligence analyst – the question you would ask any risk
officer: “What are you most worried about?” Without pausing, this person
replied, “A highly contagious virus that begins somewhere in China and
spreads rapidly.” This vice-president, whose company has offices
throughout east Asia, explained the preventive mitigating steps the
company had subsequently adopted to counter this potential threat.
Since the novel coronavirus has swept the world, I
have often thought about this person’s prescient risk calculus. Most
leaders lack the discipline to do routine risk-based horizon scanning,
and fewer still develop the requisite contingency plans. Even rarer is
the leader who has the foresight to correctly identify the top threat
far enough in advance to develop and implement those plans.
Suffice it to say, the Trump administration has cumulatively failed, both in taking seriously the specific, repeated intelligence community
warnings about a coronavirus outbreak and in vigorously pursuing the
nationwide response initiatives commensurate with the predicted threat.
The federal government alone has the resources and authorities to lead
the relevant public and private stakeholders to confront the foreseeable
harms posed by the virus. Unfortunately, Trump officials made a series
of judgments (minimizing the hazards of Covid-19) and decisions
(refusing to act with the urgency required) that have needlessly made
Americans far less safe.
In short, the Trump administration forced a
catastrophic strategic surprise onto the American people. But unlike
past strategic surprises – Pearl Harbor, the Iranian revolution of 1979,
or especially 9/11 – the current one was brought about by unprecedented
indifference, even willful negligence. Whereas, for example, the 9/11
Commission Report
assigned blame for the al-Qaida attacks on the administrations of
presidents Ronald Reagan through George W Bush, the unfolding
coronavirus crisis is overwhelmingly the sole responsibility of the
current White House.
Chapter 8
of the 9/11 Commission Report was titled, The System Was Blinking Red.
The quote came from the former CIA director George Tenet, who was
characterizing the summer of 2001, when the intelligence community’s
multiple reporting streams indicated an imminent aviation terrorist
attack inside the United States. Despite the warnings and frenzied
efforts of some counter-terrorism officials, the 9/11 Commission
determined “We see little evidence that the progress of the plot was
disturbed by any government action … Time ran out.”
Last week, the Washington Post reported
on the steady drumbeat of coronavirus warnings that the intelligence
community presented to the White House in January and February. These
alerts made little impact upon senior administration officials, who were
undoubtedly influenced by President Donald Trump’s constant derision of
the virus, which he began
on 22 January: “We have it totally under control. It’s one person
coming in from China, and we have it under control. It’s going to be
just fine.”
By now, there are three painfully obvious observations
about Trump’s leadership style that explain the worsening coronavirus
pandemic that Americans now face. First, there is the fact that once he
believes absolutely anything – no matter how poorly thought-out,
ill-informed or inaccurate – he remains completely anchored to that
initial impression or judgment. Leaders are unusually hubristic and
overconfident; for many, the fact that they have risen to elevated
levels of power is evidence of their inherent wisdom. But truly wise
leaders authentically solicit feedback and criticism, are actively open
thinkers, and are capable of changing their minds. By all accounts,
Trump lacks these enabling competencies.
Second, Trump’s judgments are highly transmissible,
infecting the thinking and behavior of nearly every official or adviser
who comes in contact with the initial carrier. Unsurprisingly, the
president surrounds himself with people who look, think and act like he
does. Yet, his inaccurate or disreputable comments also have the
remarkable ability to become recycled by formerly honorable military,
intelligence and business leaders. And if somebody does not consistently
parrot the president’s proclamations with adequate intensity, they are
fired, or it is leaked that their firing could be imminent at any time –
most notably the recent report
of the president’s impatience with the indispensable Anthony Fauci, the
director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
And, third, the poor judgments soon contaminate all
the policymaking arms of the federal government with almost no
resistance or even reasonable questioning. Usually, federal agencies are
led by those officials whom the White House believes are best able to
implement policy. These officials have usually enjoyed some degree of
autonomy; not under Trump. Even historically non-partisan national
security or intelligence leadership positions have been filled by people
who are ideologically aligned with the White House, rather than endowed
with the experience or expertise needed to push back or account for the
concerns raised by career non-political employees.
Thus, an initial incorrect assumption or statement by Trump cascades into day-to-day policy implementation.
The same Post report featured the following stunning
passage from an anonymous US official: “Donald Trump may not have been
expecting this, but a lot of other people in the government were – they
just couldn’t get him to do anything about it. The system was blinking
red.” That latter passage is an obvious reference to that aforementioned
central finding of the 9/11 Commission Report.
Given that Trump concluded early on that the
coronavirus simply could not present a threat to the United States,
perhaps there is nothing that the intelligence community, medical
experts employing epidemiological models, or public health officials
could have told the White House that would have made any difference.
Former national security adviser Henry Kissinger is reputed
to have said after an intelligence community warning went unrecognized,
“You warned me, but you didn’t convince me.” Yet, a presidential brain
trust wholly closed off to contrarian, though accurate, viewpoints is
incapable of being convinced.
The White House detachment and nonchalance during the
early stages of the coronavirus outbreak will be among the most costly
decisions of any modern presidency. These officials were presented with a
clear progression of warnings and crucial decision points far enough in
advance that the country could have been far better prepared. But the
way that they squandered the gifts of foresight and time should never be
forgotten, nor should the reason they were squandered: Trump was
initially wrong, so his inner circle promoted that wrongness
rhetorically and with inadequate policies for far too long, and even
today. Americans will now pay the price for decades.
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