In just the last three days, Donald Trump has refused to confirm that he would submit to a peaceful transfer of power, stated that we should just “throw out the ballots” so that instead of a transfer he could just stay in control, and continued to claim that the election is being rigged against him. Even though the White House has issued statements saying that Trump would go along with a “free and fair election,” they’ve been accompanied by claims that the election is not fair.
Reassurance level = zero.
It’s now clear that reporters aren’t the only ones fretting over whether or not Trump will leave the White House voluntarily. Joe Biden may say that Trump will be “escorted out” if he fails to leave following his defeat. But just who will do the escorting? Trump and Attorney General William Barr have already demonstrated they can militarize the Border Patrol, Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), the Marshals Service, the Department of Prisons, and even the Park Police to distribute violence and construct rings of isolation between Trump and the people. So what about the actual military?
For months, military officials have been publicly scoffing at the whole idea that they could be entangled in removing—or defending—an executive who clung to power despite being defeated at the polls. But privately, they are worried. Senior Pentagon leadership has been asking themselves what they should do if a defeated Trump fails to exit stage far-right. And what they should do if Trump cites the Insurrection Act and orders them to put a final bullet through democracy.
As The New York Times makes clear, Trump’s efforts to pre-invalidate the election are increasing. While Republicans in Congress may be putting up a pretense of reassuring voters both about election integrity and the peaceful handover of power, that’s not what Trump supporters are hearing. Trump, his surrogates, and right-wing media are all spreading the message that the election is already being corrupted by an effort to manufacture Democratic votes and discard Trump ballots. Feeding this fantasy is exactly why Trump is playing up a minor incident in Pennsylvania in which a handful of spoiled ballots were discarded.
Trump’s sales technique is not subtle. The things that Trump wants people to believe, he repeats over and over and over. And at the top of Trump’s playlist right now are claims that the election is rigged, the election is rigged, the election … and so forth.
What Trump supporters are hearing is that the polls are a lie, posted by the fake news Trump has spent four years demeaning. The real polls, Trump insists, have him so far ahead that the only way he can possibly lose is if the election is a “big scam.” He is repeating, on every television appearance, and at every rally, that the election is not fair. That it’s not honest. And he’s told his supporters there is only one way to tell if the election was real—if he wins. If Trump loses, he’s already told his rally goers that this means the election is a scam.
The reason Trump is doing this is simple enough: He knows he is extremely likely to lose. Yes, it’s sill over a month until the election, strange things happen, the public is fickle, Biden could fall off the debate stage. Both candidates are in their 70s in a nation where a pandemic disease has killed over 100,000 people in that age group alone—thanks to one of those candidates. But the polls, which Trump reads obsessively, have Biden ahead by a margin that is extremely significant, if not insurmountable.
Trump is preparing to lose. Trump is planning to hold onto power. Both those things are true.
As the Times reports, the Pentagon has reason to worry. The 200-year-old Insurrection Act would enable Trump to send active-duty military troops into states under the claim of putting down riots and “quelling disturbances.” It would not matter what state or local officials had to say. Troops might be sent into states in advance of elections under the pretense that they were needed to control “Democrat cities” where anarchists are running riot. They might be sent in to suppress protests following an election where Trump declares victory regardless of the vote. They might be deployed around the White House in January to make sure that only Trump is present to drop his hand onto John Roberts’ Bible.
The rarely used Insurrection Act absolutely provides this power, but what would the military do if called on to either suppress voters before the election or crush democracy in the wake of a Trump defeat? Several top officials seem ready to resign rather than carry out such an order, including Air Force Chief of Staff Charles Brown. But even if all of the top brass stormed out, leaving behind angry letters, Trump could, and would, replace them immediately. Then what?
Just as epidemiologists simulated the pandemic months before it arrived, a group of national security and military experts called the Transition Integrity Project have already gamed out what comes next. Their report makes for terrifying reading. As they point out, Trump has repeatedly justified his actions for political reasons, and either ignored the law completely or let his assistants produce some legal rationale after the fact. And while the nation mourns Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, much concern has focused on the role the Supreme Court could play in the upcoming election, and there are even darker possibilities.
“A close and contested election may be resolved through the exercise of power, not through the courts.”
The experts involved in simulating the election assumed that Trump will use the Department of Justice (DOJ) to launch repeated investigations of elections and officials in states he did not win, demand recounts in those states, and continue a coordinated effort to demean the outcome. Trump could insist that the DOJ was finding major issues with voter fraud and possibly even order Barr to arrest anyone attempting to count ballots after the close of the polls. He might pressure Republican officials to immediately certify states before all votes are tallied, or refuse to certify states where Trump is losing. And he could encourage supporters—including armed supporters—to harass election officials at state and local levels while continuing to complain that it is really Biden who is trying to start “a revolution” or “antifa coup.”
During the simulations, the Democratic team was not idle. The simulated Biden campaign worked to obtain statements from bipartisan official supporting the election, even securing a statement from all living presidents to denounce Trump’s efforts to weaken faith in elections. They called on Republican leaders to join a “National Day of Unity” and eventually called a general strike in an effort to pressure business leaders for support. The effect of all these efforts was … limited.
The biggest thing to come from the simulated outcomes is that this can’t wait until Election Day. Democrats should assume there will be a contested election and plan for that eventuality now. In an actual crisis, “events will unfold quickly.” Biden and other political leaders, coming off days of hard campaigning and a long night of watching results, won’t be in a position to make snap decisions. All the options, and responses, need to be well-planned in advanced so that no one is trying to think through a complex response at 3 AM. Democrats also need to understand that this is both a legal battle and a political battle. Messaging and presence could mean as much as paperwork piling up in courts—and both should be prepared in advance.
Biden is extremely likely to win the election. But that’s not the same as wresting power away from Trump. As much planning needs to go into how to handle a hostile transition as is going into securing votes in the election. It shouldn’t be that way, but then nothing in 2020 should be this way.
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