01 September 17
his is what climate change looks like. Entire metropolitan areas -- Houston in the United States and Mumbai in India -- submerged in catastrophic floods.
Record-breaking rainfall: Harvey's 50-plus inches of torrential deluge set a new national tropical cyclone rain record for the continental United States.
They used to make Hollywood disaster movies about this sort of thing. Now it's just the news.
They used to make Hollywood disaster movies about this sort of thing. Now it's just the news.
Officials as senior as Kellyanne Conway,
counselor to President Donald Trump, have suggested that now -- during a
natural disaster -- is not the time to raise the divisive and highly
politicized issue of global warming. But if not now, when? After the
waters subside, the news crews pack up, and the long task of rebuilding
begins, the world's attention inevitably moves on.
Watching Trump tour the flooded areas, I was reminded of his Rose Garden press conference
less than three months ago announcing the US withdrawal from the Paris
climate treaty. In that act of wanton international vandalism, Trump was
helping condemn millions more people to the threat of intensified
extreme events in future decades.
It is not politically opportunistic to raise this
issue now. Instead we have a moral duty not to accept the attempted
conspiracy of silence imposed by powerful political and business
interests opposed to any reduction in the use of fossil fuels. We owe
this to the people of Texas as much to those of Bangladesh and India,
and Niger -- which was also struck by disastrous flooding this week.
Climate disasters demonstrate our collective humanity
and interdependence. We have to help each other out -- in the short term
by saving lives and in the longer term by cutting greenhouse gases and
enhancing resilience, especially in developing countries.
No, of course climate change did not "cause" Harvey in
any singular sense. Nor does smoking definitively "cause" any
individual case of lung cancer. Smoking increases the risk of cancer,
just as increased global warming increases the risk of extreme rainfall
events.
This is not scientifically controversial. There is a
straightforward physical relationship between a warming atmosphere and
extreme rainfall potential.
Hotter air can hold more water vapor. And hotter water can provide the fuel for more intense tropical storms.
Hotter air can hold more water vapor. And hotter water can provide the fuel for more intense tropical storms.
Yes, the vagaries of the weather played a part. Harvey
stalled close enough to the Texas coast to continue drawing in tropical
air from the Gulf of Mexico that was supercharged with moisture.
But the climate change fingerprint is undeniable, too.
Sea surface temperatures across the Gulf on August 23, just before
Harvey made landfall in Texas, were ominously warm,
1.5 to 4 degrees Celsius (2.7 to 7.2 F) hotter than the average of a
few decades ago. These warm waters helped Harvey develop from a mere
tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in just 48 hours.
If disasters ever have a silver lining, it is that
they bring us together. Witness how ordinary people risked their lives
to save others as the floodwaters rose around Houston. These were not
unusual heroes; they were just normal people doing what they knew was
right.
In life-threatening situations our human empathy
swamps our day-to-day divisions of politics, nationality or religion. In
South Asia, the International Red Cross and Red Crescent Movement is
already supporting 200,000 people in direst need of food and shelter.
Somehow, we need to find a way to extend our capacity
to empathize and support each other across political and social divides
in the long term. If climate change remains as politically toxic as it
is today in America, we will never be able to address it properly.
We all have a duty to confront denial and speak out.
If we fail, the Harveys, Katrinas and Sandys of the future will be even
worse than the storms we experience today. And in the future, as now,
each subsequent climate disaster will just be "news." Surely we can do
better than that.
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