The sharpie of things to come
Dr Ryan Maue, who served as a NOAA administrator and in the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy — in the Trump administration, no less! — has a warning about the weather, or more precisely about Trump’s plans for the weather, in this morning’s NYT: Republicans Would Regret Letting Elon Musk Ax Weather Forecasting.
For people who care about weather and climate, one of the most concerning proposals on the table is to dismantle the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA]. The authors of Project 2025, a blueprint for the administration crafted by conservative organizations, claim erroneously that NOAA is “one of the main drivers of the climate change alarm industry” and should be “broken down and downsized.” [emphasis added]
Other than that highlighted quote above, Dr. Maue doesn’t discuss climate change denial. He should have: Trump’s attitude toward climate change concerns those who know what they are talking about.
Trump 2.0: This Time the Stakes for Climate Are Even Higher
The November 5 election was the worst-case outcome for climate regulation. The return of Donald Trump to the Oval Office and Republican control of the Senate and the House of Representatives will halt federal progress and lead to a reversal of most of the climate initiatives undertaken by the Biden administration.
Trump Victory Is a ‘Gut Punch’ to U.S. Climate Action
Trump's victory over Vice President Kamala Harris immediately cast doubt over the future of U.S. climate measures and raised questions about the country's commitment to cutting planet-warming pollution.
So right there is a motive for Trump (via Musk and Ramaswarmy) to cut NOAA funding on the usual right-wing belief that if it isn’t reported, it didn’t happen — or at least, people won’t find out that it’s happening, until the next flood or drought or hurricane hits them when it shouldn’t have.
And speaking of hurricanes . . . Dr. Maue points out predicting them is a major function of NOAA that can’t be replaced by the private sector:
The best-known part of NOAA, touching all of our daily lives, is the National Weather Service. This is where daily forecasts and timely warning of severe storms, hurricanes and blizzards come from. Using satellites, balloon launches, ships, aircraft and weather stations, NOAA and its offices around the country provide vital services like clockwork, free of charge — services that cannot be adequately replaced by the private sector in part because they wouldn’t necessarily be profitable.
Oops, hurricanes. That’s another reason why Trump has it in for NOAA. Back in 2019, when Trump mistakenly said Hurricane Dorian would hit Alabama, the National Weather Service (a branch of NOAA) said no, it won’t, and Trump blew a gasket. He could have just blamed a staffer for giving him bad info. But that would mean Trump misspoke, even if unintentionally, and Trump never misspeaks. His sharpie editing of the hurricane map was the least of it. Anatomy of a fiasco: A detailed timeline of Trump’s Alabama map meltdown
He falsely claimed that Hurricane Dorian was likely to hit Alabama.
Then he repeated the claim after the National Weather Service debunked it.
Then he insisted that the media, not him, was in the wrong.
Then, to try to prove his point, he showed the media an outdated map that had clearly been altered.
Then, trying again, he tweeted out an unaltered map that was too old to prove his point.
Then, trying again again, he tweeted out some more old maps.
Finally, Trump got his homeland security adviser to issue a statement vouching for him.
Over five days, President Donald Trump delivered a barrage of inaccurate and confusing statements about Dorian – aggressively defending his original false claim by being repeatedly dishonest about what it was he had originally said.
It wasn’t only HHS; Trump forced NOAA to speak out against its own agency: NOAA Contradicts Weather Service, Backs Trump on Hurricane Threat In Alabama. And Agency reverses course on Trump’s Alabama hurricane claim: “But the president has been adamant throughout the week that he was correct, and the White House has deployed government resources and staff to back him.”
Trump made it clear throughout the campaign that one of his main goals this time around would be revenge on anyone who had ever stood in his way, ever challenged him, ever beseeched him “in the bowels of Christ, think it possible you might be mistaken.” (OK, that last one was Oliver Cromwell to the elders of the Church of Scotland, but I’ve always been fond of its scatological plea.) Defunding NOAA will include defunding the NWS, and you can bet Trump will see that as a plus: He gets revenge.
Never mind that this will leave us without accurate weather forecasting, forcing us to rely on European weather services, (whose priority, understandably, is Europe). And that has national security implications. Here is Dr. Maue again:
[B]ecause the military relies on NOAA’s infrastructure, the risks of and damage from extreme weather and climate events are a national security concern as much as an economic one.
Dr. Maue didn’t bother to state the obvious: If European weather agencies fall into unfriendly hands, there will be a high probability that our farmers, our emergency services, and especially our military, will be forced to rely on doubtful and even misleading weather reports.
But at least Trump won’t have to worry any more that his administration will speak out of turn, whether it’s about hurricanes or about climate change.
The weather, however, will still have some things to say.
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